Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
